Ok guys, here’s some Sunday night situations again… there’s some great things in motion!  As we have been talking about, the summer trading channels are in full force so lets keep an eye out for those and be ready to jump in on the bounces.  Lets get right to it;

EUR/USD:

The eur/usd is bouncing between an area that looks like a nicely formed summer channel, I’m watching for the 1.3800 to be the top (give or take 100 pips) and the 1.3000 to be the bottom of the channel (also give or take 100 pips).  At its current location, watch for continued downward movement to the 1.3000 area and be ready to enter a longer term buy as it approaches that level.  Remember, these are longer term trades that require large stop losses but even larger take profits, also use small lot amounts on these because they can run for several hundred pips.

GBP/USD:

We have a similar channel forming nicely on this pair, I’m looking for the top of this channel to be around 1.4800 and the bottom to be around 1.3800 (remember, this is give or take 100 pips).  Watch for continued downward movement to this 1.4000 area and beyond but be ready for the bounce and an buy opportunity at this area.

GBP/JPY:

This pair is less likely to channel so lets just watch for the trend and indicators to take this in the appropriate direction.  As for right now, it looks like there could be a nice break out down happening at the 139.00 area.  A break of this should yield some nice downward movement.

EUR/GBP:

This pair is channeling nicely, but the immediate movement looks to be down with the 4h crossover.  So I’ll be keeping my eye on the crossover and watching for some confirmed downward movement on this pair.

AUD/USD:

On this pair watch for some continued downward movement, especially at the break of the 0.6865.

EUR/JPY:

This pair is following the rest of the JPY pairs and that direction is down.  There should be a particular good signal downward as it breaks the 129.35 level, so watch for that.

That’s all for now, but stay posted for the upcoming calendar for the week and all the live trades.  Good luck and remember, summer trading is in our FACES!!

GOOD LUCK!!

Jared J.

Watch for the crossover happening on the EUR/USD. It’s breaking through the fibonacci retrace levels as I write this so a theres a good opportunity for a sell. Look for a target around the Weekly Pivot Point.

This mornings announcement was pre-maturely bombarded by Treasury Secretary Geithner’s speach. Several minutes before the US Home Sales announcement was released Geithner commented about China’s suggestion of moving towards an SDR-linked currency system which sunk the dollar and sent all of it’s rivals soaring. When the announcement was released it further created intense volatility making most pairs to dangerous to trade. This type of situation doesn’t happen very often so be mindfull of setting entry points as well as open positions and don’t worry about it if you missed out on the movement. 

With summer conditions almost in full swing there are trade opportunities constantly forming so keep you eyes open and be careful of getting too dialed in. The EUR/USD is moving back up towards last weeks high which could create a great selling opportunity. GBP/JPY made a nice crossover so look for selling opportunities on this pair as well. Stay tuned with the site and there will be more posts to keep you updated on current events.

Hey guys, it’s Sunday night once again and this market has gone crazy and also crazy!!  Hopefully you all are part of the emailing list, if you’re not there’s a link just a little way down on the right hand side, join it so you can keep up with what’s happening in this market.  We saw some amazing movement this last week and it all falls into the little category I like to call the “pre-summer movement” which happens about this time of year… every year.  Anyway, the market is working its way into a larger channel in which it will stay through out the summer, most likely until about July.

We may see the market continue in it’s current direction for another few days or even week or two but eventually it will top out and start back down, down to the bottom of the summer channel.  This channel is more common on the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD, other currencies can channel like this but it’s usually these pairs that “suffer” from the summer range bound situation.

Summer is the prime time to trade longer term positions, long ups and long downs.  The market is pretty predictable and great for 400-500 pip movements.  I’ll be ready and waiting for these trades as soon as the market calms down a bit and starts showing some signs of a turn around, which could be a few more days/weeks.

Onto the immediate market conditions,

AUD/USD and NZD/USD are breaking upper levels and heading up, look for retracement and get ready for some entries on either of these pairs, they should yield some good movement.

As for the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD, these two are stalling a bit but could be heading up as well, watch for the breaks.  However both pairs are looking like they have good BUY opportinities at the 1.4500 and the 1.3660 areas, watch and enter with caution.  But things are close to the darma and the other indicators seem to be pointing up so this is looking like a pretty nice green light for me.

More to come folks, stay turned and watch for the calendar on the upcoming trades.

Good luck trading,

Jared J.

Well guys, it’s Sunday night again and another weekend has fled past us like it was 5 minutes long.  Maybe it’s just me but it seems like things should be the other way around, we should have an entire week off and just a weekend of work! ;)  Ok enough with the wishful thinking, onto reality… a reality that can hopefully make us some money.

Remember, we’re pretty much seeing summer trading conditions in the market so we have to watch for a larger range being traded on the daily charts.  For example I’ve been in a trade on the EUR/USD for about 2 weeks now, one I just closed for several hundreds pips of profit.  I believe the EUR/USD is trading in a range somewhere 1.2500 and 1.3000, so i was in a buy at 1.2550 that i closed just below 1.3000 for over 400 pips worth of profit.  I am now going to watch this pair to see how high it will go and then I will be entering a sell somewhere above 1.3000 (possibly near the 1.3100′ish level).  This is how summer trading works, it’s a great time to sit back and play out some longer term trades, get ready because there’s going to be some coming our way.

As for the Sunday night trades levels, they are trading more choppy than normal since we’re seeing movements that are short lived during this “summer” market.  But here are some noteworthy levels I’m seeing on some currency pairs across the board.

Watch for several breaks up on the following currency pairs,

USD/CHF, break above 1.1935

NZD/USD, break above 0.5264

GBP/JPY, break above 138.40

USD/JPY, break above 98.65

As for the infamous GBP/USD and EUR/USD, these pairs are both approaching similar situations on their upper levels, the question is will they break or bounce.  All the pairs listed above should be watched and, if entered, run for small profits.  But these two pairs are really in focus for this week, given they have behaved some predictably for our summer trading.

I would say the GBP/USD has a better likelihood of making a nice move if it breaks the 1.4070 level up, than does the EUR/USD at the break up of the 1.2955 level.  So my move will probably include a buy with a break up on the GBP/USD but most likely I will be staying out of the EUR/USD for a buy but I’ll be watching it for a turn around for a possible sell this week.

That’s my story, trade with caution and remember to take small profits on the movements of this week.

Good luck,

Jared J.

Hey all, It’s a little later than normal but daylight savings has me all mixed up, so bare with me while I adjust to this new time thing…. that’s all I need is to get up an hour earlier!!

OK, so due to possible summer trading conditions starring us in the face I’ve decided to take a break on the Sunday night trades as they have been very choppy and tough to follow lately.  This doesn’t mean that Sunday night trades are over it just means that they may need a little time to get back into action.  So definitely keep an eye on them and watch for the movements past the highs and lows of Friday because as the pairs break they will still move, it’s just getting increasingly difficult to judge which pairs are going to make the better Sunday night movements.  So I leave it to you to decide, I’ll continue to watch the levels and start posting them again in a couple of weeks but in the mean time I’m going to be watching for the channels across several pairs, summer trading seems to be moving forward but it won’t be until the end of the month before we can definitely verify this.

As we have discussed on the live trade sessions this week, I’m starting to see a channel forming on the EUR/USD and I think this visible channel could very likely hold through the summer.  Like I said, until April we run a chance of the channel being broken but after April this channel should hold all the way through summer, and we could be in it already.  This same thing applies to the GBP/USD, these are the only two pairs I’m watching for the summer channel to form with, but as the weeks go on it will be more and more likely that other pairs will start forming similar channels.  I encourage many of you to start looking over historical data on your charts and try to find your own levels and lets discuss them on the live trades during the week.

So here is what, at this point, I’m watching for on the EUR/USD, we have a very strong level down at 1.2450/2500 so I’m looking at this for being the bottom of the channel.  1.3000 is always a strong psychological level and one that the pair has not been able to make a hold above for a few weeks now.  So I’ll be looking for the EUR/USD to be trading between 1.2450/2500 for the lower level and 1.3000/1.3250 for the upper level.  These levels could very easily hold for the entire summer, but as you’ve all seen the Forex market is capable of doing whatever it wants so be aware of that, but these levels should definitely be good for something.

As for the GBP/USD, this pair is looking a little more tricky, I’m not sure what to totally think here as many of the other GBP pairs are all over the map.  What I mean by this is I’m looking for the GBP/USD to have a channel of 1.4000 for the lower level and about 1.5000 for the upper level.  As you know the pair is currently trading around 1.4100 right now so that would put it at the bottom of the channel, if this is the channel that will hold for the summer.  But the conflict that I have at this point is with the GBP/JPY, both this pair and the GBP/USD tend to move somewhat in the same direction and if the GBP/USD is at the bottom of the channel, 14100, and the GBP/JPY looks like it might be near the top of it’s channel.  141.50 has been a very strong level for the G/Y and unless we get some major movements, i doubt it will be able to break that level, thus putting it near the top of the channel while the G/U is near the bottom of the channel.  It’s going to be a week or so before I can make a good call on these pairs and the relative channels.

Anyway, that’s the story for the summer trading channels.  But remember, the Sunday night trades will still yield some very good trades, it’s just going to be more difficult to determine which ones will be making the movements and which ones will be faking us out… so be advised.

Watch for the breaks of Friday’s highs/lows and there should be plenty of currencies moving tonight, as always keep an eye on the GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, AUD/USD and the USD/JPY.

Good luck everyone and happy trading!!

Jared J.

Hi All, another Sunday night is upon us…

Before getting down to business, I hope everyone had a great week of trading and that you’re all ready for another one.  We had quite the run on the JPY pairs last week, there were really good trades to be had so I hope everyone got some piece of the action.  We had an ok week on the ATM there was an average of 50 pips gained last week from the live trades calls, so if you haven’t been logging on you might want to start, there’s some great trades at those hours and it can be very worth your time in the log term.  The live trades help with adding to your pip count for the week but most important, it can help you to be able to recognize trades as they happen in real time.  So be there or be square!

We have NFP (non-farm payroll) coming out this Friday so there’s always some interesting side effects that happen the week of, be advised.  OK, we have some very interesting set ups happening so I’ll do my best to explain what I’m seeing, there’s A LOT!!

EUR/USD:

There’s LOTS going on with this pair.  First of all, this pair seems to be in some sort of a down trend but there’s a hidden uptrend within this downtrend and the pair is at the point of deciding which direction to go.  The day chart shows and underlying uptrend starting in about the end of October of last year, the market, on the bottom side, continues to make higher lows.  So it’s either going to bounce off this 1.2550/00 level or it’s going to break through and continue on south for the 1.2000 and beyond.  We’re have to watch this one closely, it’s big break points will be 1.2550 and 1.2500.  The .1.2550 may be a good level to watch as a break of this will be close to the darma and other moving averages and below the weekly pivot.

**EUR/USD UPDATE** reminder, watch the lower level on 1.2500 on this pair, a bounce off this level could DEFINITELY happen but until it breaks/bounces by about 50/60 pips, we won’t know. But remember, this is an important level…

Upper buy levels: 1.2750

Lower Sell levels: 1.2550

GBP/USD:

This pair is still in an official downtrend and looks like it ’should’ have less trouble continuing downward than the EUR/USD but the channel is wide on this one and an entry point is going to be difficult to pinpoint.  So, I’m probably going to take a different approach on this one.  If a candle can just OPEN below 1.4180, I think i’ll take a sell at that point, all the while watching it as it approaches the lower level of 1.4100 which will be a big breaking point or an even bigger turn around/bouncing point.  Watch this one, don’t look for a huge movement, it may or may not be there.

Upper buy level: 1.4370

Lower sell level: entry below 1.4180, watch for 1.4100

EUR/GBP:

This pair appears to be heading down, I’m basically looking for it to break 0.8830 and I’m entering a sell, end of story.

Sell below: 0.8830

USD/CHF:

This pair has been tough trading for a while now, but there seems to be a possible good set up, pro-trend, break out level if it can make it’s way through 1.1760.  If that level can be broken I will be entering a buy, I will not be looking at any sell possibilities at this point.

Buy above: 1.1760

USD/JPY:

This pair is in a nice uptrend and is experiencing some retracement right now, there’s also a nice wedge forming from the high on Thursday at 98.70 and it’s intersecting with Friday’s low at 96.85.  A break above this descending trend line at 97.90 should give us a nice buying opportunity.

Upper buy level: 97.90

Lower sell level: 96.85

Refer to the pic below on the usd/jpy wedge that is forming.

Those are the major ones I’m looking at as of right now, I’ll post more details as the night carries on… for the mean time watch for those levels and situations.  Remember, if a breakout happens too far from the Darma or Red line of the Alligator, be careful with your entry as price begins to get unstable the further away it is.  Look for possible retracements back to the Red line if a break happens too far from those important levels.

Happy trading and lets all make some money!!

Jared J.